The Global Downstream Market Outlook is aimed at helping clients navigate the post-COVID environment by providing long term forecasts of refined product supply, demand and balances at the global, regional and country level. Also provided are forecasts of regional crude and product prices along with refining margins.
Product Demand Forecast - Europe split into NWE, Mediterranean, and Major Countries; Asia and Middle East split by major countries; U.S. split by PADD
2020 is now behind us but the effects of the pandemic are still with us even as demand recovery continues, aided by loosening restrictions and improvement in the vaccine rollout. However, many questions remain surrounding what “new normal” awaits us as we emerge from this post-COVID environment. In this publication, we address the following topics and questions to help clients navigate the crude, refined products, and renewable fuels markets:
What would product demand recovery look like in the U.S. and Globally post COVID?
How will future OPEC+ action impact crude oil differentials?
How has COVID impacted midstream projects in North America?
How has the current environment and COVID-driven demand shock impacted refining investments and projects?
With recent developments in EV battery technology, what is the expected impact of EV penetration on transportation fuel demand?
Following recent planned announcements on renewable diesel projects, what is the expected capacity growth of renewable diesel production?
What U.S. state level LCFS initiatives are currently underway and which ones are expected next?
Mexico Refining, Midstream, and Retail Market Data
This dataset covers recent developments in Mexico’s refining, midstream, and retail markets, including forecast of refined product supply/demand balances, terminal and pipeline infrastructure and investments, and expansions in the retail fuel markets. Forecast is provided out to 2035 and country data is broken out by the 5 regions.
Forecast of product supply and demand of gasoline, jet, diesel and fuel oil, including supply sources and sector demand
Car parc data by vehicle type – motorcycles, automobiles, trucks and buses
Refinery capacities, forecast refined product balances and historical trade
Storage terminal, pipeline and rail infrastructure including location, capacities and supply sources
Historical and planned midstream investments including sponsor, location, capacities and project costs
Current and planned retail fuel station network covering locations, company and % share
Country and regional maps featuring terminal locations, pipeline connectivity, rail transportation network, and retail fuel sites
Clearing the Bitumen Bottleneck – A Multi-Client Study
This Multi-Client study focuses on assessing the processing, transportation & marketing options for Alberta Bitumen and evaluates options available to producers based in part on the relative crude values delivered to key refining centers. The study's scope includes blended bitumen, partially upgraded bitumen, fully upgraded bitumen and refined products. Various transportation scenarios for Alberta producers are assessed with the optimum netback analyzed under each selected scenario.
Current assessment of Alberta oil sands supply, demand and logistics
Economic analysis of bitumen blending, partial upgrading, full upgrading, and refining in Alberta
Key refinery disposition markets best configured for each bitumen stream
Pipeline implications (Enbridge Line 3, TransCanada Keystone XL, Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion) of future bitumen production and transportation
Economic assessment of railing bitumen to various markets
Netback analysis on bitumen exports to the U.S. and Asia including price decks for both crude and refined petroleum products at key locations
Supply/Disposition analysis to determine how much bitumen, and in which form, can be absorbed by key markets (PADDs I-V and Asia)