CA LCFS Credit Price Outlook

TM&C’s price forecast of CA LCFS credit price ($/MT) through 2035. Analysis is based on TM&C’s proprietary model, evaluating marginal cost credit producers, forecasted carbon intensities, deficit generation, credit bank levels, and a rigorous assessment of the potential amendments to the regulations moving forward.

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This forecast is NOT a correlation-based forecast (e.g. Credit Price vs Credit Bank relationship). Instead, it relies on supply/demand fundamentals and analysis of the current/future marginal credit generator. TM&C assesses the feasibility of future proposals for robust scenario analysis. This includes sensitivity cases around the 2025 9% step-down, AAM (automatic acceleration mechanism), CI reduction schedules, GREET 4.0 updates, baseline 2010 CI changes, intrastate fossil jet as a deficit generator, and many others.

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